Two teams of six. Two days of fourballs, then singles. We tried all 462 ways to pick the teams, and every draw for each, and played every possible match 20,000 times using our own scorecards. Choose how the matches are scored, and see the split and draw that comes out closest to a coin toss.
Captains' Room → Pick your own teams and pairings and see the odds change, then track results during the weekend.
What if → Change anyone's handicap and watch this draw stop being a coin toss.
What it meansEach match is won by the side with more Stableford points (in fourballs, the better of the pair's two scores on each hole counts). The lowest handicap in each match plays off scratch and everyone else gets the difference: 85% of course handicap in fourballs, 100% in singles.
What it doesTotals look low, and lots of holes score 0. A hole can't score below 0, so a blow-up costs no more than a double bogey. That forgives erratic players most, and they are usually the higher handicaps. Fairest teams with this scoring: 44% / 13% tie / 43%.
What it meansSame Stableford scoring, but every player gets all of their own shots: 85% of course handicap in fourballs, 100% in singles. Totals look like a normal Stableford card.
What it doesFar fewer holes fall to 0, so blow-ups are forgiven less than off the lowest. Steady scorers do better, and they are often the lower handicaps. Fairest teams with this scoring: 43% / 14% tie / 43%.
What it meansEach hole is won by the lower net score (in fourballs, the better of the pair), and the match by whoever wins more holes; all square is a half. WHS matchplay allowances: 90% of course handicap in fourballs, 100% in singles, shots off the lowest.
What it doesA disaster only loses one hole, however bad it is, and it's the gap in shots that matters, not who plays off scratch. This is how the Ryder Cup is played. Fairest teams with this scoring: 44% / 13% tie / 44%.
Pairs, in index order: Paul | Chris F · Neil | Jon · Andy | Lucas · Steve L | Mark · Martin | Steve B · Jack | Chris C. Martin, Steve B and Jack all play off 35 in round 1, so where the line falls between them is down to a tenth of index.
With Neil and Lucas apart: costs nothing measurable. 252 of the 462 splits qualify, and the fairest of them is the split we would have picked anyway.
With the handicap pairs split: costs 4.0 points of event balance. 32 of the 462 splits qualify, and the fairest of them is a different split from the unconstrained one.
With Neil and Lucas apart and the handicap pairs split: costs 4.0 points of event balance. 16 of the 462 splits qualify, and the fairest of them is a different split from the unconstrained one.
Left to itself the search picks teams with Neil and Lucas apart, and not every handicap pair split.
With Neil and Lucas apart: costs nothing measurable. 252 of the 462 splits qualify, and the fairest of them is a different split from the unconstrained one.
With the handicap pairs split: costs nothing measurable. 32 of the 462 splits qualify, and the fairest of them is a different split from the unconstrained one.
With Neil and Lucas apart and the handicap pairs split: costs nothing measurable. 16 of the 462 splits qualify, and the fairest of them is a different split from the unconstrained one.
Left to itself the search picks teams with Neil and Lucas together, and not every handicap pair split.
With Neil and Lucas apart: costs nothing measurable. 252 of the 462 splits qualify, and the fairest of them is the split we would have picked anyway.
With the handicap pairs split: costs nothing measurable. 32 of the 462 splits qualify, and the fairest of them is the split we would have picked anyway.
With Neil and Lucas apart and the handicap pairs split: costs nothing measurable. 16 of the 462 splits qualify, and the fairest of them is the split we would have picked anyway.
Left to itself the search picks teams with Neil and Lucas apart, and every handicap pair split.
Team A is the very slight favourite. Avg pts is each player's average score a round at 95% from their last 20 cards (see who scores what).
Every one of the 12 matches is expected to be no more lopsided than this. No split can get every match inside 45–55 with this scoring; the best any can do is 44–56. Of the 33 splits within a point of that, these teams have the most even chances of winning the event.
With these same teams but pairings and singles drawn at random, the most lopsided match would typically be this far apart, and one team would typically have a 13-point edge in its chance of winning. Setting the draw is what keeps every match worth playing.
How often two sides finish on the same Stableford total. That's why a 6–6 tie comes up 13% of the time; decide beforehand what happens then.
| # | Team A | Team B | Least close matchexpected points ×100 | A / tie / Bwith its own best draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon, Andy, Lucas, Steve L, Jack, Chris C | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Mark, Martin, Steve B | 44–56 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 2 | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Lucas, Martin, Steve B | Jon, Andy, Steve L, Mark, Jack, Chris C | 44–56 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 3 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Jack, Chris C | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Steve B | 44–56 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 4 | Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Steve B, Chris C | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Andy, Mark, Jack | 44–56 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 5 | Jon, Steve L, Mark, Martin, Steve B, Chris C | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Andy, Lucas, Jack | 44–56 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 6 | Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Mark, Jack, Chris C | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Andy, Martin, Steve B | 44–56 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 7 | Jon, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack, Chris C | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Lucas, Mark, Martin | 44–56 | 44% / 13% / 42% |
| 8 | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Lucas, Mark, Jack | Jon, Andy, Steve L, Martin, Steve B, Chris C | 44–56 | 44% / 13% / 42% |
The split whose handicaps are closest (Paul, Chris F, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C v Neil, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack, R1 playing handicaps 160 v 160) looks perfect on paper. Even with the best possible draw for it, the cards give Team A a 51% chance of winning the event against 36%, and its least close match is 43–57. Some of us play to our handicap far more often than others.
Team A is the very slight favourite. Avg pts is each player's average score a round at 95% from their last 20 cards (see who scores what).
Every one of the 12 matches is expected to be no more lopsided than this. No split can get every match inside 45–55 with this scoring; the best any can do is 44–56. Of the 17 splits within a point of that, these teams have the most even chances of winning the event.
With these same teams but pairings and singles drawn at random, the most lopsided match would typically be this far apart, and one team would typically have a 13-point edge in its chance of winning. Setting the draw is what keeps every match worth playing.
How often two sides finish on the same Stableford total. That's why a 6–6 tie comes up 13% of the time; decide beforehand what happens then.
| # | Team A | Team B | Least close matchexpected points ×100 | A / tie / Bwith its own best draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon, Andy, Lucas, Steve L, Jack, Chris C | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Mark, Martin, Steve B | 44–56 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 2 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Jack, Chris C | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Steve B | 44–56 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 3 | Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Steve B, Chris C | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Andy, Mark, Jack | 44–56 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 4 | Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Mark, Jack, Chris C | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Andy, Martin, Steve B | 44–56 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 5 | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Andy, Steve B, Jack | Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Mark, Martin, Chris C | 44–56 | 44% / 13% / 42% |
| 6 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Steve B, Jack, Chris C | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Mark, Martin | 44–56 | 45% / 13% / 42% |
| 7 | Paul, Chris F, Jon, Andy, Lucas, Martin | Neil, Steve L, Mark, Steve B, Jack, Chris C | 44–56 | 45% / 13% / 41% |
| 8 | Paul, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C | Chris F, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack | 44–56 | 46% / 13% / 41% |
The split whose handicaps are closest (Paul, Chris F, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C v Neil, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack, R1 playing handicaps 160 v 160) looks perfect on paper. Even with the best possible draw for it, the cards give Team A a 51% chance of winning the event against 36%, and its least close match is 43–57. Some of us play to our handicap far more often than others.
Team A is the favourite. Avg pts is each player's average score a round at 95% from their last 20 cards (see who scores what).
Every one of the 12 matches is expected to be no more lopsided than this. No split can get every match inside 45–55 with this scoring; the best any can do is 44–56. Of the 2 splits within a point of that, these teams have the most even chances of winning the event.
With these same teams but pairings and singles drawn at random, the most lopsided match would typically be this far apart, and one team would typically have a 4-point edge in its chance of winning. Setting the draw is what keeps every match worth playing.
How often two sides finish on the same Stableford total. That's why a 6–6 tie comes up 13% of the time; decide beforehand what happens then.
| # | Team A | Team B | Least close matchexpected points ×100 | A / tie / Bwith its own best draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C | Chris F, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack | 44–56 | 46% / 13% / 41% |
| 2 | Chris F, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack | Paul, Neil, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C | 44–56 | 46% / 13% / 41% |
| 3 | Paul, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Martin, Chris C | Chris F, Neil, Lucas, Mark, Steve B, Jack | 43–57 | 50% / 13% / 37% |
| 4 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Martin, Chris C | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Steve B, Jack | 43–57 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 5 | Paul, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Chris C | Chris F, Neil, Andy, Mark, Steve B, Jack | 43–57 | 51% / 13% / 36% |
| 6 | Paul, Neil, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Chris C | Chris F, Jon, Andy, Mark, Steve B, Jack | 43–57 | 45% / 13% / 41% |
| 7 | Paul, Jon, Andy, Mark, Steve B, Chris C | Chris F, Neil, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Jack | 43–57 | 50% / 13% / 37% |
| 8 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Steve B, Chris C | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Jack | 43–57 | 45% / 13% / 42% |
The split whose handicaps are closest (Paul, Chris F, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C v Neil, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack, R1 playing handicaps 160 v 160) looks perfect on paper. Even with the best possible draw for it, the cards give Team A a 51% chance of winning the event against 36%, and its least close match is 43–57. Some of us play to our handicap far more often than others.
Team A is the favourite. Avg pts is each player's average score a round at 95% from their last 20 cards (see who scores what).
Every one of the 12 matches is expected to be no more lopsided than this. No split can get every match inside 45–55 with this scoring; the best any can do is 44–56. Of the 1 splits within a point of that, these teams have the most even chances of winning the event.
With these same teams but pairings and singles drawn at random, the most lopsided match would typically be this far apart, and one team would typically have a 4-point edge in its chance of winning. Setting the draw is what keeps every match worth playing.
How often two sides finish on the same Stableford total. That's why a 6–6 tie comes up 13% of the time; decide beforehand what happens then.
| # | Team A | Team B | Least close matchexpected points ×100 | A / tie / Bwith its own best draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C | Chris F, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack | 44–56 | 46% / 13% / 41% |
| 2 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Martin, Chris C | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Steve B, Jack | 43–57 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 3 | Paul, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Chris C | Chris F, Neil, Andy, Mark, Steve B, Jack | 43–57 | 51% / 13% / 36% |
| 4 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Steve B, Chris C | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Jack | 43–57 | 45% / 13% / 42% |
| 5 | Paul, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Steve B, Chris C | Chris F, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Martin, Jack | 43–57 | 50% / 13% / 37% |
| 6 | Paul, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Steve B, Jack | Chris F, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Martin, Chris C | 43–57 | 50% / 13% / 37% |
| 7 | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Chris C | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Steve B, Jack | 43–57 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 8 | Paul, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Jack | Chris F, Neil, Andy, Mark, Steve B, Chris C | 43–57 | 50% / 13% / 37% |
The split whose handicaps are closest (Paul, Chris F, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C v Neil, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack, R1 playing handicaps 160 v 160) looks perfect on paper. Even with the best possible draw for it, the cards give Team A a 51% chance of winning the event against 36%, and its least close match is 43–57. Some of us play to our handicap far more often than others.
Team A is the very slight favourite. Avg pts is each player's average score a round at 95% from their last 20 cards (see who scores what).
Every one of the 12 matches is expected to be no more lopsided than this. No split can get every match inside 45–55 with this scoring; the best any can do is 37–63. Of the 374 splits within a point of that, these teams have the most even chances of winning the event.
With these same teams but pairings and singles drawn at random, the most lopsided match would typically be this far apart, and one team would typically have a 2-point edge in its chance of winning. Setting the draw is what keeps every match worth playing.
How often two sides finish on the same Stableford total. That's why a 6–6 tie comes up 14% of the time; decide beforehand what happens then.
| # | Team A | Team B | Least close matchexpected points ×100 | A / tie / Bwith its own best draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul, Neil, Jon, Andy, Lucas, Martin | Chris F, Steve L, Mark, Steve B, Jack, Chris C | 37–63 | 43% / 14% / 43% |
| 2 | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Jon, Steve L, Martin | Andy, Lucas, Mark, Steve B, Jack, Chris C | 36–64 | 43% / 14% / 43% |
| 3 | Chris F, Jon, Andy, Lucas, Martin, Jack | Paul, Neil, Steve L, Mark, Steve B, Chris C | 36–64 | 43% / 14% / 43% |
| 4 | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Martin, Steve B, Jack | Jon, Andy, Lucas, Steve L, Mark, Chris C | 36–64 | 43% / 14% / 43% |
| 5 | Andy, Lucas, Steve L, Steve B, Jack, Chris C | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Jon, Mark, Martin | 36–64 | 43% / 14% / 43% |
| 6 | Paul, Neil, Jon, Andy, Steve B, Chris C | Chris F, Lucas, Steve L, Mark, Martin, Jack | 36–64 | 43% / 14% / 43% |
| 7 | Chris F, Andy, Mark, Steve B, Jack, Chris C | Paul, Neil, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Martin | 37–63 | 43% / 14% / 43% |
| 8 | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Jon, Steve B, Chris C | Andy, Lucas, Steve L, Mark, Martin, Jack | 36–64 | 43% / 14% / 43% |
The split whose handicaps are closest (Paul, Chris F, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C v Neil, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack, R1 playing handicaps 160 v 160) looks perfect on paper. Even with the best possible draw for it, the cards give Team A a 55% chance of winning the event against 32%, and its least close match is 37–63. Some of us play to our handicap far more often than others.
Team A is the very slight favourite. Avg pts is each player's average score a round at 95% from their last 20 cards (see who scores what).
Every one of the 12 matches is expected to be no more lopsided than this. No split can get every match inside 45–55 with this scoring; the best any can do is 37–63. Of the 192 splits within a point of that, these teams have the most even chances of winning the event.
With these same teams but pairings and singles drawn at random, the most lopsided match would typically be this far apart, and one team would typically have a 2-point edge in its chance of winning. Setting the draw is what keeps every match worth playing.
How often two sides finish on the same Stableford total. That's why a 6–6 tie comes up 14% of the time; decide beforehand what happens then.
| # | Team A | Team B | Least close matchexpected points ×100 | A / tie / Bwith its own best draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Jon, Steve L, Martin | Andy, Lucas, Mark, Steve B, Jack, Chris C | 36–64 | 43% / 14% / 43% |
| 2 | Chris F, Jon, Andy, Lucas, Martin, Jack | Paul, Neil, Steve L, Mark, Steve B, Chris C | 36–64 | 43% / 14% / 43% |
| 3 | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Martin, Steve B, Jack | Jon, Andy, Lucas, Steve L, Mark, Chris C | 36–64 | 43% / 14% / 43% |
| 4 | Andy, Lucas, Steve L, Steve B, Jack, Chris C | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Jon, Mark, Martin | 36–64 | 43% / 14% / 43% |
| 5 | Paul, Neil, Jon, Andy, Steve B, Chris C | Chris F, Lucas, Steve L, Mark, Martin, Jack | 36–64 | 43% / 14% / 43% |
| 6 | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Jon, Steve B, Chris C | Andy, Lucas, Steve L, Mark, Martin, Jack | 36–64 | 43% / 14% / 43% |
| 7 | Paul, Neil, Steve L, Mark, Martin, Jack | Chris F, Jon, Andy, Lucas, Steve B, Chris C | 36–64 | 43% / 14% / 43% |
| 8 | Jon, Andy, Lucas, Mark, Steve B, Jack | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Steve L, Martin, Chris C | 36–64 | 43% / 14% / 43% |
The split whose handicaps are closest (Paul, Chris F, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C v Neil, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack, R1 playing handicaps 160 v 160) looks perfect on paper. Even with the best possible draw for it, the cards give Team A a 55% chance of winning the event against 32%, and its least close match is 37–63. Some of us play to our handicap far more often than others.
Team A is the very slight favourite. Avg pts is each player's average score a round at 95% from their last 20 cards (see who scores what).
Every one of the 12 matches is expected to be no more lopsided than this. No split can get every match inside 45–55 with this scoring; the best any can do is 37–63. Of the 24 splits within a point of that, these teams have the most even chances of winning the event.
With these same teams but pairings and singles drawn at random, the most lopsided match would typically be this far apart, and one team would typically have a 6-point edge in its chance of winning. Setting the draw is what keeps every match worth playing.
How often two sides finish on the same Stableford total. That's why a 6–6 tie comes up 14% of the time; decide beforehand what happens then.
| # | Team A | Team B | Least close matchexpected points ×100 | A / tie / Bwith its own best draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Steve B, Chris C | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Martin, Jack | 36–64 | 43% / 14% / 43% |
| 2 | Chris F, Jon, Andy, Mark, Steve B, Jack | Paul, Neil, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Chris C | 37–63 | 44% / 14% / 42% |
| 3 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Martin, Jack | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Steve B, Chris C | 36–64 | 44% / 14% / 42% |
| 4 | Chris F, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack | Paul, Neil, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C | 37–63 | 45% / 14% / 41% |
| 5 | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Steve B, Jack | Paul, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Martin, Chris C | 36–64 | 45% / 14% / 41% |
| 6 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Steve B, Chris C | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Jack | 36–64 | 46% / 14% / 40% |
| 7 | Paul, Jon, Andy, Mark, Martin, Chris C | Chris F, Neil, Lucas, Steve L, Steve B, Jack | 36–64 | 46% / 14% / 40% |
| 8 | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Steve B, Jack | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Martin, Chris C | 36–64 | 46% / 14% / 40% |
The split whose handicaps are closest (Paul, Chris F, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C v Neil, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack, R1 playing handicaps 160 v 160) looks perfect on paper. Even with the best possible draw for it, the cards give Team A a 55% chance of winning the event against 32%, and its least close match is 37–63. Some of us play to our handicap far more often than others.
Team A is the very slight favourite. Avg pts is each player's average score a round at 95% from their last 20 cards (see who scores what).
Every one of the 12 matches is expected to be no more lopsided than this. No split can get every match inside 45–55 with this scoring; the best any can do is 37–63. Of the 12 splits within a point of that, these teams have the most even chances of winning the event.
With these same teams but pairings and singles drawn at random, the most lopsided match would typically be this far apart, and one team would typically have a 6-point edge in its chance of winning. Setting the draw is what keeps every match worth playing.
How often two sides finish on the same Stableford total. That's why a 6–6 tie comes up 14% of the time; decide beforehand what happens then.
| # | Team A | Team B | Least close matchexpected points ×100 | A / tie / Bwith its own best draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Steve B, Chris C | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Martin, Jack | 36–64 | 43% / 14% / 43% |
| 2 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Martin, Jack | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Steve B, Chris C | 36–64 | 44% / 14% / 42% |
| 3 | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Steve B, Jack | Paul, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Martin, Chris C | 36–64 | 45% / 14% / 41% |
| 4 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Steve B, Chris C | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Jack | 36–64 | 46% / 14% / 40% |
| 5 | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Steve B, Jack | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Martin, Chris C | 36–64 | 46% / 14% / 40% |
| 6 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Chris C | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Jack | 36–64 | 47% / 14% / 40% |
| 7 | Paul, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C | Chris F, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack | 37–63 | 47% / 14% / 39% |
| 8 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Steve B, Jack | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Chris C | 36–64 | 48% / 14% / 38% |
The split whose handicaps are closest (Paul, Chris F, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C v Neil, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack, R1 playing handicaps 160 v 160) looks perfect on paper. Even with the best possible draw for it, the cards give Team A a 55% chance of winning the event against 32%, and its least close match is 37–63. Some of us play to our handicap far more often than others.
Team A is the very slight favourite. Avg pts is each player's average score a round at 95% from their last 20 cards (see who scores what).
Every one of the 12 matches is expected to be no more lopsided than this. No split can get every match inside 45–55 with this scoring; the best any can do is 40–60. Of the 248 splits within a point of that, these teams have the most even chances of winning the event.
With these same teams but pairings and singles drawn at random, the most lopsided match would typically be this far apart, and one team would typically have a 3-point edge in its chance of winning. Setting the draw is what keeps every match worth playing.
How often a match finishes all square after 18 holes. That's why a 6–6 tie comes up 13% of the time; decide beforehand what happens then.
| # | Team A | Team B | Least close matchexpected points ×100 | A / tie / Bwith its own best draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Jack | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Steve B, Chris C | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 44% |
| 2 | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Jon, Steve B, Chris C | Andy, Lucas, Steve L, Mark, Martin, Jack | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 3 | Paul, Neil, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Mark | Chris F, Lucas, Martin, Steve B, Jack, Chris C | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 4 | Chris F, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Steve B, Chris C | Paul, Neil, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Jack | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 5 | Chris F, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Jack, Chris C | Paul, Neil, Jon, Andy, Mark, Steve B | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 6 | Chris F, Lucas, Steve L, Mark, Martin, Steve B | Paul, Neil, Jon, Andy, Jack, Chris C | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 7 | Paul, Neil, Jon, Mark, Steve B, Jack | Chris F, Andy, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Chris C | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 8 | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Mark, Martin, Chris C | Jon, Andy, Lucas, Steve L, Steve B, Jack | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
The split whose handicaps are closest (Paul, Chris F, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C v Neil, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack, R1 playing handicaps 160 v 160) looks perfect on paper. Even with the best possible draw for it, the cards give Team A a 53% chance of winning the event against 34%, and its least close match is 39–61. Some of us play to our handicap far more often than others.
Team A is the very slight favourite. Avg pts is each player's average score a round at 95% from their last 20 cards (see who scores what).
Every one of the 12 matches is expected to be no more lopsided than this. No split can get every match inside 45–55 with this scoring; the best any can do is 40–60. Of the 126 splits within a point of that, these teams have the most even chances of winning the event.
With these same teams but pairings and singles drawn at random, the most lopsided match would typically be this far apart, and one team would typically have a 3-point edge in its chance of winning. Setting the draw is what keeps every match worth playing.
How often a match finishes all square after 18 holes. That's why a 6–6 tie comes up 13% of the time; decide beforehand what happens then.
| # | Team A | Team B | Least close matchexpected points ×100 | A / tie / Bwith its own best draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Jack | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Steve B, Chris C | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 44% |
| 2 | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Jon, Steve B, Chris C | Andy, Lucas, Steve L, Mark, Martin, Jack | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 3 | Paul, Neil, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Mark | Chris F, Lucas, Martin, Steve B, Jack, Chris C | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 4 | Chris F, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Steve B, Chris C | Paul, Neil, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Jack | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 5 | Chris F, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Jack, Chris C | Paul, Neil, Jon, Andy, Mark, Steve B | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 6 | Chris F, Lucas, Steve L, Mark, Martin, Steve B | Paul, Neil, Jon, Andy, Jack, Chris C | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 7 | Paul, Neil, Jon, Mark, Steve B, Jack | Chris F, Andy, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Chris C | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 8 | Paul, Chris F, Neil, Mark, Martin, Chris C | Jon, Andy, Lucas, Steve L, Steve B, Jack | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
The split whose handicaps are closest (Paul, Chris F, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C v Neil, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack, R1 playing handicaps 160 v 160) looks perfect on paper. Even with the best possible draw for it, the cards give Team A a 53% chance of winning the event against 34%, and its least close match is 39–61. Some of us play to our handicap far more often than others.
Team A is the very slight favourite. Avg pts is each player's average score a round at 95% from their last 20 cards (see who scores what).
Every one of the 12 matches is expected to be no more lopsided than this. No split can get every match inside 45–55 with this scoring; the best any can do is 40–60. Of the 16 splits within a point of that, these teams have the most even chances of winning the event.
With these same teams but pairings and singles drawn at random, the most lopsided match would typically be this far apart, and one team would typically have a 3-point edge in its chance of winning. Setting the draw is what keeps every match worth playing.
How often a match finishes all square after 18 holes. That's why a 6–6 tie comes up 13% of the time; decide beforehand what happens then.
| # | Team A | Team B | Least close matchexpected points ×100 | A / tie / Bwith its own best draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Jack | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Steve B, Chris C | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 44% |
| 2 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Martin, Jack | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Steve B, Chris C | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 3 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Chris C | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Jack | 40–60 | 45% / 13% / 42% |
| 4 | Paul, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Martin, Chris C | Chris F, Neil, Lucas, Mark, Steve B, Jack | 40–60 | 45% / 13% / 42% |
| 5 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Martin, Jack | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Steve B, Chris C | 40–60 | 46% / 13% / 42% |
| 6 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C | 40–60 | 46% / 13% / 42% |
| 7 | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Steve B, Jack | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Martin, Chris C | 40–60 | 46% / 13% / 41% |
| 8 | Paul, Jon, Andy, Mark, Martin, Chris C | Chris F, Neil, Lucas, Steve L, Steve B, Jack | 40–60 | 46% / 13% / 41% |
The split whose handicaps are closest (Paul, Chris F, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C v Neil, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack, R1 playing handicaps 160 v 160) looks perfect on paper. Even with the best possible draw for it, the cards give Team A a 53% chance of winning the event against 34%, and its least close match is 39–61. Some of us play to our handicap far more often than others.
Team A is the very slight favourite. Avg pts is each player's average score a round at 95% from their last 20 cards (see who scores what).
Every one of the 12 matches is expected to be no more lopsided than this. No split can get every match inside 45–55 with this scoring; the best any can do is 40–60. Of the 8 splits within a point of that, these teams have the most even chances of winning the event.
With these same teams but pairings and singles drawn at random, the most lopsided match would typically be this far apart, and one team would typically have a 3-point edge in its chance of winning. Setting the draw is what keeps every match worth playing.
How often a match finishes all square after 18 holes. That's why a 6–6 tie comes up 13% of the time; decide beforehand what happens then.
| # | Team A | Team B | Least close matchexpected points ×100 | A / tie / Bwith its own best draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Jack | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Steve B, Chris C | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 44% |
| 2 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Martin, Jack | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Steve B, Chris C | 40–60 | 44% / 13% / 43% |
| 3 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Chris C | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Jack | 40–60 | 45% / 13% / 42% |
| 4 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Martin, Jack | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Steve B, Chris C | 40–60 | 46% / 13% / 42% |
| 5 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C | 40–60 | 46% / 13% / 42% |
| 6 | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Steve B, Jack | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Martin, Chris C | 40–60 | 46% / 13% / 41% |
| 7 | Paul, Neil, Andy, Mark, Steve B, Jack | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Steve L, Martin, Chris C | 40–60 | 46% / 13% / 41% |
| 8 | Chris F, Jon, Lucas, Mark, Steve B, Jack | Paul, Neil, Andy, Steve L, Martin, Chris C | 40–60 | 47% / 13% / 41% |
The split whose handicaps are closest (Paul, Chris F, Lucas, Mark, Martin, Chris C v Neil, Jon, Andy, Steve L, Steve B, Jack, R1 playing handicaps 160 v 160) looks perfect on paper. Even with the best possible draw for it, the cards give Team A a 53% chance of winning the event against 34%, and its least close match is 39–61. Some of us play to our handicap far more often than others.
Every match picked to be as close to a coin toss as the cards allow. The bar shows each side's chance of winning the match, with the grey sliver for a half. Shots are for that match. Avg score is the side's average Stableford total in the simulations (better ball for pairs). It looks low because the lowest handicap in each match plays off scratch.
Every R2 partnership is new. 3 of the R1 head-to-heads come round again in R2; with only three fourballs a day that can't be avoided, but nobody meets the same pair twice.
Every match picked to be as close to a coin toss as the cards allow. The bar shows each side's chance of winning the match, with the grey sliver for a half. Shots are for that match. Avg score is the side's average Stableford total in the simulations (better ball for pairs). It looks low because the lowest handicap in each match plays off scratch.
Every R2 partnership is new. 3 of the R1 head-to-heads come round again in R2; with only three fourballs a day that can't be avoided, but nobody meets the same pair twice.
Every match picked to be as close to a coin toss as the cards allow. The bar shows each side's chance of winning the match, with the grey sliver for a half. Shots are for that match. Avg score is the side's average Stableford total in the simulations (better ball for pairs). It looks low because the lowest handicap in each match plays off scratch.
Every R2 partnership is new. 3 of the R1 head-to-heads come round again in R2; with only three fourballs a day that can't be avoided, but nobody meets the same pair twice.
Every match picked to be as close to a coin toss as the cards allow. The bar shows each side's chance of winning the match, with the grey sliver for a half. Shots are for that match. Avg score is the side's average Stableford total in the simulations (better ball for pairs). It looks low because the lowest handicap in each match plays off scratch.
Every R2 partnership is new. 3 of the R1 head-to-heads come round again in R2; with only three fourballs a day that can't be avoided, but nobody meets the same pair twice.
Every match picked to be as close to a coin toss as the cards allow. The bar shows each side's chance of winning the match, with the grey sliver for a half. Shots are for that match. Avg score is the side's average Stableford total in the simulations (better ball for pairs).
Every R2 partnership is new. 3 of the R1 head-to-heads come round again in R2; with only three fourballs a day that can't be avoided, but nobody meets the same pair twice.
Every match picked to be as close to a coin toss as the cards allow. The bar shows each side's chance of winning the match, with the grey sliver for a half. Shots are for that match. Avg score is the side's average Stableford total in the simulations (better ball for pairs).
Every R2 partnership is new. 3 of the R1 head-to-heads come round again in R2; with only three fourballs a day that can't be avoided, but nobody meets the same pair twice.
Every match picked to be as close to a coin toss as the cards allow. The bar shows each side's chance of winning the match, with the grey sliver for a half. Shots are for that match. Avg score is the side's average Stableford total in the simulations (better ball for pairs).
Every R2 partnership is new. 3 of the R1 head-to-heads come round again in R2; with only three fourballs a day that can't be avoided, but nobody meets the same pair twice.
Every match picked to be as close to a coin toss as the cards allow. The bar shows each side's chance of winning the match, with the grey sliver for a half. Shots are for that match. Avg score is the side's average Stableford total in the simulations (better ball for pairs).
Every R2 partnership is new. 3 of the R1 head-to-heads come round again in R2; with only three fourballs a day that can't be avoided, but nobody meets the same pair twice.
Every match picked to be as close to a coin toss as the cards allow. The bar shows each side's chance of winning the match, with the grey sliver for a half. Shots are for that match. Avg holes won is how many holes the side wins on average; the rest are halved or lost.
Every R2 partnership is new. 4 of the R1 head-to-heads come round again in R2; with only three fourballs a day that can't be avoided, but nobody meets the same pair twice.
Every match picked to be as close to a coin toss as the cards allow. The bar shows each side's chance of winning the match, with the grey sliver for a half. Shots are for that match. Avg holes won is how many holes the side wins on average; the rest are halved or lost.
Every R2 partnership is new. 4 of the R1 head-to-heads come round again in R2; with only three fourballs a day that can't be avoided, but nobody meets the same pair twice.
Every match picked to be as close to a coin toss as the cards allow. The bar shows each side's chance of winning the match, with the grey sliver for a half. Shots are for that match. Avg holes won is how many holes the side wins on average; the rest are halved or lost.
Every R2 partnership is new. 4 of the R1 head-to-heads come round again in R2; with only three fourballs a day that can't be avoided, but nobody meets the same pair twice.
Every match picked to be as close to a coin toss as the cards allow. The bar shows each side's chance of winning the match, with the grey sliver for a half. Shots are for that match. Avg holes won is how many holes the side wins on average; the rest are halved or lost.
Every R2 partnership is new. 4 of the R1 head-to-heads come round again in R2; with only three fourballs a day that can't be avoided, but nobody meets the same pair twice.
Handicaps are meant to make everyone equal, but they're built from a player's best rounds, and some of us play to our handicap more often than others. So we took each player's last 20 cards (the same cards behind their handicap), scored every hole again with the handicap they'll play off at Aroeira, and looked at the points.
| Player | Index | Plays offindividual, R1 / R2 / R3 | Cards | Avg ptsper round | Typical roundmiddle 80% | Rangedashed line = 36 | 3+ pt holesper round | Blobs0-pt holes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Timms | 11.7EG | 12 / 11 / 12 | 20 | 32.7 | 27–36 | 3.8 | 1.2 | |
| Chris Fleming | 14.7EG | 16 / 15 / 16 | 20 | 31.6 | 28–36 | 3.6 | 2.1 | |
| Lucas Sparkes | 22.7VPAR | 24 / 23 / 24 | 20 | 30.6 | 26–34 | 4.0 | 2.5 | |
| Andy Fleming | 21.5VPAR | 23 / 22 / 23 | 20 | 30.2 | 23–34 | 3.8 | 2.9 | |
| Mark McAteer | 27.1EG | 29 / 28 / 29 | 20 | 30.1 | 25–35 | 4.3 | 3.1 | |
| Jon Fleming | 19.7VPAR | 21 / 20 / 21 | 20 | 29.4 | 21–37 | 3.4 | 2.6 | |
| Steve Lewis | 26.0VPAR | 28 / 27 / 28 | 20 | 29.3 | 21–35 | 5.0 | 4.5 | |
| Jack MasonCards 2018–2022 | 32.1VPAR | 35 / 33 / 35 | 18 | 29.0 | 22–35 | 4.0 | 3.6 | |
| Steve Buckell | 32.0VPAR | 35 / 33 / 35 | 20 | 28.9 | 23–36 | 4.5 | 3.9 | |
| Chris Clarke | 40.2VPAR | 44 / 42 / 44 | 20 | 28.4 | 22–36 | 4.6 | 4.5 | |
| Martin Wrankmore11 cards | 32.0VPAR | 35 / 33 / 35 | 11 | 28.3 | 22–35 | 4.1 | 3.3 | |
| Neil Sparkes | 17.1EG | 18 / 17 / 18 | 20 | 28.1 | 21–34 | 3.0 | 2.8 |
A typical round from Paul Timms is worth 32.7 points and one from Neil Sparkes 28.1. That's 14 points over a weekend, before anyone has hit a shot. Field average: 29.7 a round.
Chris Fleming is the most predictable card-to-card, and Jon Fleming swings the most. In a fourball that suits a streaky player: their big holes count, and their partner often covers the blobs.
Steve Lewis makes the most 3-point-or-better holes a round, which makes them worth more in the fourballs than their average suggests.
Nothing here changes anyone's handicap for the individual competition. It only decides who plays with and against whom.
| Scoring | Fairest teamsA / tie / B | Least close matchwith the best draw | Splits within 45–55of 462 | Draw out of a hattypical least close match | Balance handicaps onlyfavourite's chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stableford, off the lowest | 44% / 13% / 43% | 44–56 | 0 | 31–69 | 51% |
| Stableford, full handicaps | 43% / 14% / 43% | 37–63 | 0 | 33–67 | 55% |
| Matchplay, holes won | 44% / 13% / 44% | 40–60 | 0 | 32–68 | 53% |
index × slope ÷ 113 + (CR − par), then the allowance for the format, rounded. Stableford points per hole = par + 2 + shots − score, never below 0. In matchplay the lower net score (score − shots) wins the hole.