PGA Aroeira · Golf Weekend

Aroeira Handicaps

Twelve players, three rounds, one goal: handicaps nobody can moan about. Every number is either an official England Golf index or computed from a full history of VPAR rounds (plus Hole19, where a player keeps one) — and the maths is all here to check.

Objections may be raised on the first tee and will be noted, then ignored.

12 players3 rounds Individual Stableford95% allowance Yellow teesBest 8 of 20 Net 2 hole caps
The results
The individual Stableford over three rounds, and Hemel School v the Nomads, final.
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Trip itinerary
Flights, transfers and tee times, Wed 30 Sep to Mon 5 Oct. Pick your name to see just your own trip.
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The Card

Playing handicaps per round · longest handicap first

PlayerR1PinesR2ChallengeR3Pines
Confidence: Solid Watch Thin / stale data R1/R3 Pines play harder than R2 Challenge (slope 131 vs 128)
Handicaps over time
Every player's computed index after every qualifying round, twelve charts on one scale — who's improving, who isn't, and how the computed line tracks the England Golf one.
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Sense check: Amendoeira 2025, replayed
Last October's three rounds, scored again with these handicaps. Every scorecard included.
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The fairest teams
2 teams of 6, with every fourball and singles match drawn to be as close to 50/50 as our scorecards allow.
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Captains' Room
Pick your own teams and pairings on your phone, see each side's chances, and track results over the weekend.
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What if
Think a handicap is wrong? Change it and see what it does to his shots, to the weekend's Stableford and to the team match — worked out in your browser, changing nothing.
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Net 2 · Net Double Bogey

Blow-up holes, capped

Before any round counts towards a handicap, every hole is capped — exactly as England Golf does it. A disaster 10 on a par 4 only counts as the maximum a player of that handicap would be allowed, and a pickup counts as that maximum too. This can only ever bring a handicap down.

hole max = par + 2 + shots received

Shots received come from the player's handicap at the time of that round (worked out from their 20 rounds before it) and the hole's stroke index.

PlayerRounds with a capHoles cappedof which pickupsShots trimmedWithout Net 2With Net 2R1 play

VPAR-computed players, last 20 rounds. “Shots trimmed” counts strokes taken above the cap; pickups have no score to trim, so they're scored at the cap. “Without Net 2” uses the same rounds and tee ratings with every finished hole counted as played. England Golf indexes already have Net 2 built in, so those four players are unchanged.

Calibration · the control group

Does the maths agree with England Golf?

Five players have an official England Golf Handicap Index. Running our calculation on their rounds is the only honest test of it — if it can reproduce a number England Golf already set, it can be trusted on the eight players whose handicap we compute. Here is every one of the five, including the 3 it gets wrong.

PlayerEngland GolfOur mathsGapRounds spanLast 24 months only

Our maths = this site's exact method (Net 2 caps, tee ratings, best 8 of the last 20) run on the same player's VPAR record. England Golf indexes are self-reported. “Last 24 months only” reruns the method on just the recent rounds, using the WHS table for a short record.

What the table says

Where the record is recent, the method is accurate. Chris F, Paul T each have their full 20 rounds inside the last 6 months, and our maths lands within 0.9 of a shot of their official index — 2 of the five. That is the calculation working as intended.

Where it doesn't agree. WHS takes the last 20 rounds, not the last 20 weeks, so a player who logs only a handful a year carries a window reaching back years and old form never ages out. That explains most disagreements — but not all of them, so here is each one with the test applied:

  • Mark McAteer — official 27.1, our maths 28.2 (+1.1). His 20 rounds span 4 months; narrowing to the last 24 months doesn't move him (28.2), so this gap is not a stale window.
  • Neil Sparkes — official 17.1, our maths 18.8 (+1.7). His 20 rounds span 4 months; narrowing to the last 24 months doesn't move him (18.8), so this gap is not a stale window.
  • Lucas Sparkes — official 19.1, our maths 22.7 (+3.6). He only posts his best rounds to England Golf, so his official index is built from a filtered record rather than his last 20 rounds. That explains the gap, and it's why he plays off our maths instead.

Neil is the proof that it's the data, not the maths. He used to be the worst disagreement here: 20 rounds stretched over 24 months computed to 25.7 against his official index at the time, 17.8, nearly 8 shots out. Adding his Hole19 export filled the record in — 20 rounds inside 4 months — and the same maths, unchanged, now gives 18.8. Nothing about the calculation moved; only the data did. Lucas's record was filled in the same way, from the cards Neil marked for him, and his gap only came in from 4.8 to 3.6. It turned out the gap was never about the maths: Lucas only posts his best rounds to England Golf.

On Lucas. He has an England Golf index of 19.1, but he only posts his best rounds to England Golf. A handicap built from hand-picked cards will always read low, which is why 19.1 sits below every other record we have: our maths says 22.7 across 20 months and 51 usable rounds from two apps, and Hole19, where Neil has marked his card since 2024, has carried him at 23.0 to 25.0 throughout. So for this weekend Lucas plays off our maths, 22.7, the same way as the players with no official index.

So are the computed handicaps too high?

Not from the method — on a dense record it is accurate to within a shot, and it is as likely to read low (Paul 0.9 below) as high. The real caution is the same window effect: every one of the eight computed players has a window longer than a year, and three stretch past two years. If a player has improved since, their index here lags behind them. That is a data problem, not a maths one, and it is fixed by logging more rounds.

The rulebook

The rules we followed

Every judgement call in the calculation, in one place — so any argument can start from the same page.

Which rounds count

  • 18-hole rounds only. 9-hole rounds are left out, including 9 holes entered on an 18-hole card (the other nine show as 0).
  • At least 14 holes holed out. Up to 4 pickups are allowed, the World Handicap System minimum for an 18-hole score. Cards with fewer holes played are left out.
  • The scorecard is the authority. The gross is added up hole by hole from the VPAR card, not taken from VPAR's round total, which is sometimes wrong or missing.
  • The joke round is out. The doctored Pyrford Lakes card from 29 Sep 2024 is excluded for everyone on it.
  • Par-3 courses are out. A course with no course rating (e.g. Turtle Hill, par 54) can't give a fair differential.
  • Every round you played counts, whoever set it up. Each player's full VPAR history is used, plus any round they're on that VPAR left off their own feed (it happens: La Quinta 6 Oct 2024, Amendoeira 5 Oct 2025). Hole19 rounds for Mark McAteer, Lucas Sparkes and Neil Sparkes are added the same way, and a round logged in both apps counts once.
  • A total under 65 is treated as incomplete and left out.

Net 2 — capping each hole

  • Each hole is capped at par + 2 + shots received before anything else is worked out.
  • Shots come from the handicap at the time of that round: the player's index from their previous 20 usable rounds, turned into a course handicap index × slope ÷ 113 + (CR − par), rounded to a whole number.
  • VPAR's own handicap is not used. VPAR only holds about 10 old rounds of handicap history per player, so the handicap at the time is rebuilt from the rounds themselves. (VPAR's figure is shown on each scorecard for reference.)
  • Shots follow the stroke index: one per hole for every 18, plus one more on the holes with the lowest SI for the remainder. A card with no SI spreads shots evenly.
  • A pickup (“/” on VPAR) scores the cap.
  • No handicap yet — a player's first 3 rounds — means every hole is capped at par + 5.

The index

  • Differential = (adjusted gross − course rating) × 113 ÷ slope, to 1 decimal place.
  • Index = average of the best 8 of the last 20 usable rounds. With fewer rounds, the WHS table applies (e.g. 10 rounds → best 3, 18 → best 6). The small −1/−2 adjustments for 3–6 rounds are not applied; they only touch a player's very first rounds.
  • Maximum index 54.
  • Each round is rated for the tee it was played from. Every VPAR card records each player's tee colour and its yardage (Hole19 records the tee name); that is matched to the official Course Rating and Slope for that tee: an exact length match first, otherwise the same colour, otherwise the nearest length.
  • Ratings are official: the USGA database (which holds England Golf's ratings), the Spanish federation (RFEG) and the Portuguese federation (FPG). Luton Hoo, which no federation lists, uses its published scorecard. Where a course was re-rated, the new rating applies from 1 January of the year it is named for.
  • Estimates only where no rating exists: Caddington (now closed, never rated), Toot Hill and Costessey Park. Only one of those rounds is in anyone's last 20 (Martin, Caddington, October 2020), marked *.

On the weekend

  • England Golf index wins. Paul, Mark, Chris F and Neil play off their official index, which already includes Net 2. Their VPAR maths is only a cross-check.
  • Except Lucas. He has an England Golf index (19.1), but he only posts his best rounds to England Golf, so it isn't a record of how he plays. He plays off our maths, from his VPAR rounds and the cards Neil marked for him in Hole19.
  • Playing handicap = course handicap × 95%, rounded, for individual Stableford on the yellow tees.
  • Everything is checkable. Each player's scorecards page shows every card, hole by hole, with the sums written out.
The Working

Every number, explained

Each player's index, how confident we are, and — for the VPAR-computed players — the exact rounds and sums behind it. Open “Show the rounds & maths” to check every differential.

Method

How this was built

Two kinds of handicap, both real: an official England Golf index where a player has one, otherwise a World Handicap System calculation on their full record of VPAR rounds.

England Golf players

Mark McAteer, Neil Sparkes, Chris Fleming and Paul Timms have official England Golf Handicap Indexes, so we use them directly, because the England Golf number is the authority. Their logged rounds don't set their handicap — Mark's and Neil's come from VPAR plus their own Hole19 exports, the rest from VPAR. The maths below is run on their rounds anyway, as the cross-check that the computed indexes rest on. Lucas Sparkes has an England Golf index too, but he only posts his best rounds to it, so he is computed like the players below.

VPAR-computed players

The other seven have no official index, and Lucas's official index isn't used, so we compute one for all eight from their full VPAR history (11–154 usable rounds each; for Lucas, his VPAR rounds plus the cards Neil marked for him in Hole19). For every 18-hole round, each hole is first capped at Net 2 (below), then differential = (adjusted gross − course rating) × 113 ÷ slope, and we take the average of the best 8 of the last 20 (the standard WHS window). 9-hole rounds are excluded, as are cards with fewer than 14 holes completed. Each player's card shows the last 20 rounds; their scorecards page shows every card, hole by hole.

Net 2 (Net Double Bogey), hole by hole

Every scorecard was pulled from VPAR and each hole capped at par + 2 + shots received. The shots come from the player's course handicap at the time: their index from the 20 rounds before that one, turned into a course handicap for that course's rating and slope, then spread by stroke index — 1 shot per hole for every 18, and one more on the lowest-SI holes for the remainder.

Steve Buckell at Wexham Park, 2026-09-19: his index at the time was 32.1, a course handicap of 33 — 1 shot on every hole, plus 1 more on SI 1–15. Hole 5 is a par 5, SI 1, so he gets 2: cap = 5 + 2 + 2 = 9. He took 11, so 2 shots come off before the differential is worked out.

Pickups (“/” on a VPAR card) score the cap. For a player's first few rounds, before any index exists, the WHS rule is par + 5 per hole. Where a card has no stroke index, shots are spread evenly. Every capped hole is listed under its round in “Show the rounds & maths”.

Course ratings

A course's rating depends on the tee: at Ellesborough the yellows are 70.1 / slope 135 and the whites 71.2 / 138. So each round uses the rating for the tee actually played. VPAR records every player's tee colour and its length on the scorecard, and we match it against the official ratings: the USGA National Course Rating Database for English courses, the Spanish federation (RFEG) for Spain and Mallorca, and the Portuguese federation (FPG) for the Algarve. Most rounds match a rated tee to within a few yards. The three courses with no official rating (Caddington, which has closed, Toot Hill and Costessey Park) use estimates, marked *. Each player's scorecards page shows, for every round, which tee was rated and how it was matched.

Does it hold up?

The five England Golf players are the control, and the full result is in Does the maths agree with England Golf? above — all five, not just the flattering ones. Short version: on the 2 whose 20 rounds are recent, this method reproduces their official index to within 0.9 of a shot (Paul Timms 10.8 vs 11.7; Chris Fleming 15.0 vs 14.7). It differs by more than a shot only for Mark McAteer, 1.1 higher than his official index (see the table for why); Neil Sparkes, 1.7 higher than his official index (see the table for why); and Lucas Sparkes, 3.6 higher than his official index — he only posts his best rounds to England Golf, so it's the official figure that's off, not our maths.

From index to playing handicap

course handicap = index × slope ÷ 113 + (CR − par), then × 95% for singles Stableford. Aroeira Pines plays off CR 71.3 / slope 131; the Challenge CR 70.7 / slope 128 — hence a shot or two fewer in Round 2.

Known gaps

  • Jack Mason has logged nothing on VPAR since January 2022 — his 32.1 is an unverified placeholder.
  • Martin Wrankmore has only 11 rounds on record, so his ~32 rests on a small sample.
  • Lucas Sparkes plays off our maths (22.7), not his England Golf 19.1, because he only posts his best rounds to England Golf. His 20 rounds span 20 months, from two apps, and Hole19 has carried him at 23.0–25.0 throughout. See the calibration table.
  • Every computed index looks back over a year, and three look back more than two, because these players log only a handful of VPAR rounds a year. WHS takes the last 20 rounds however long that takes, so an improving player's index here lags their real form.

Sources: full VPAR round history · Hole19 rounds for Mark McAteer, Lucas Sparkes and Neil Sparkes · course ratings per tee from the USGA NCRDB, the Spanish (RFEG) and Portuguese (FPG) federations, and Luton Hoo's published scorecard · England Golf indexes self-reported · to Sep 2026.